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I caught a little heat (pardon the pun) for a series where I examined three teams in each conference that are capable of beating both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat. What I endeavor to do with this piece is to examine what would happen if those two teams were to meet in the NBA Finals next season. I hate to spoil the burgeoning bandwagon of the Miami Heat (I've been down with the Heat since 1988, what about you guys? ), but they are NOT ready to take on and successfully take out, the two-time champions. It would not be a contest, despite the Le Bron James and Chris Bosh additions.
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As the headline suggests, the Lakers would punish the Heat in five games. Simply put, the Heat will not be ready to defeat a team that has more OVERALL talent than they have. Also, they would be facing a team that is bigger, has better quality depth, better coaching and a player that has a stronger will than anyone on the Heat roster. I am no fan of his, but one cannot really expect Erik Spoelstra to match coaching acumen with Phil Jacskon, can you?
His 11 rings make him a coaching giant in the same conversation as Auerbach, Wooden and Lombardi. Spoelstra may be a good coach, but come on, he is CLEARLY overmatched here! Unless he is a budding genius in the making (perhaps), Spoelstra loses the first matchup of this series. He is still soft to me, as KG showed when he took the game to him (on his still bad knee). Between Gasol and Andrew Bynum, along with Lamar Odom, there is more size, more skilled size (and when you slide Ron Artest to the PF slot), tougher size.
Please keep in mind, that Jackson has not only won 11 rings, but he has lost twice in the Finals, which means he has coached in 13 Finals total! The Heat's interior of Chris Bosh, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, Juwan Howard have absolutely NO CHANCE to impact, slow down or stop the Lakers big men. This matchup should not be allowed, as it is a one-sided affair. Lamar Odom, Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Theo Ratliff vs. I specifically chose not to list the others, because they are not difference makers. Bosh has already stated he does not intend to bang inside, Big Z was old and slow three years ago, Anthony is not ready at all, Haslem needs 2-3 more inches against this group, and Juwan is OLDER than Big Z. Any one of the Lakers players have the ability to change the game. Say what you will about Mitch Kupchak when Kobe was complaining about a lack of help, but this man has turned the corner on being a good GM by making the bench even stronger AFTER winning two straight championships. This bench can contribute to a championship this season, Miami's cannot. This point will be the most controversial, I'm sure. Wade (MY FAVORITE PLAYER in the NBA), but as far as continually making the plays that his team needs, more often than not, Kobe does it. And let's say for the record, I am NO FAN of Kobe Bean Bryant. He grabbed, like 15 rebounds in Game 7 (to offset his John Starks-like choking, er, shooting night).
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He steals the inbound pass and hits a three at the end of the half of Game 2 (when Ray Allen was killing the Lakers) to bring them within single digits. Wade had to do much more for the Heat the last two years as the talent was down. That being said, he has more steals and blocks than Bryant. what I am talking about are plays that define games, seasons, and championships.
With the last two rings, Kobe has done it, while Wade hasn't. When the Heat won the championship in 2006, Wade led them there by scoring 40 a night, not doing the dirty work. I also have to admit that right now, Kobe makes the plays that catapults his team to the ring. To offset the anticipated lower production from the bench, Miami will need at least 30 ppg from Le Bron. As Bosh will only average about 12-15 points against a superior front line, Miami will need about 30 ppg from Le Bron. He feels that he does not have to score in Miami like he did in Cleveland.
As Wade plays to a possible draw with Kobe Bryant, Miami will need about 30 ppg from Le Bron. And he won't have to, not during the regular season, maybe not in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but he will have to in the Finals. In order to have a chance to win the series, Miami will need about 30 ppg from Le Bron. It is not easy to do something for 100 games, then change it in the last seven games of the season.
It goes against what an athlete has trained himself to do. Le Bron likes to facilitate the game as a point forward who can go off for 30 points. With Artest, Odom, Bynum and Gasol down low and irritants like Barnes and Ratliff, I can't see James taking it up to that level of 30 ppg. The Lakers have played in the last three Finals, winning the last two. Their entire focus is on getting to the Finals and winning it. The Heat have tried to construct a team to get there, but only Riley, Wade and Haslem have been there and won it.
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There is something to be said about being there, and doing that. We know that the Lakers know what it takes to win the big prize. This is not a black eye against them, but we just don't know if they have what it takes to win the playoff wars. If you don't think it takes a war-like mentality to win it all, just rewind Games 4-7 of this year's Finals. Miami may eventually reach that mountaintop, but we have not seen it yet. This is why I put them below the levels of the Celtics and Magic, who have repped the East for the last three years between them. The experience of the championships cannot be compared to winning the Olympics, All-Star games or pep rallies. Referees not only give superstars preferential treatment, they also give certain teams more or less latitude than others. If your team gets a reputation for complaining gets a quicker whistle. The Lakers are the two-time champions, and a cash cow for the NBA.
I am not insinuating that plays into the way the calls go, but... 20 free throws in the fourth quarter of Game Seven? The glamor team of the league is not done yet as far as contending for championships, and the referees will not just let Miami up and beat them without beating them, as 50-50 calls tends to favor the champions.